Its the reason your mom made sure you had clean new clothes for the first day of school. Its the reason when you’re sitting in the lobby before an interview you focus on a firm handshake, solid eye contact, and a confident smile. First impressions go a long way. I’ve heard it said it takes 17 encounters to overcome a bad first impression. The impact of bad first impressions is the reason Mack Brown will never get his due respect and why I think he’ll retire after this year.
The impact of first impressions is especially true with college football coaches now a days. We expect coaches to come right in and by their second year challenge for a national championship. Those who do, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, are cemented in our minds as solid coaches. The twist to it is that your first impression only takes affect when the public becomes aware of you.
Mike Leach is respected in college football for being a solid coach and making the most of a somewhat limited situation. I think he somewhat benefits from college football’s current place in today’s sports landscape. His best seasons at Texas Tech were last year’s 11-2 finish and 2005’s 9-3 finish, both somewhat disappointing because of the losses in bowl games. All other seasons he has lost at least 4 games. I would argue that Texas Tech’s place in the Big XII somewhat analagous to North Carolina’s place in the ACC. Mack Brown’s last two years at North Carolina they went 10-2 and 11-1, both seasons finishing with Gator bowl wins, and a top 10 finish and a top 5 finish. The problem is nobody was watching. This wasn’t Mack Brown’s first impression.
The next year, in 1998 Mack Brown goes to Texas and takes over a 4-7 team. In the first year they go 9-3 with a Cotton Bowl win. People say its easy to win at Texas and USC yet the coaches before Mack Brown and Pete Carroll didn’t nor did the coaches before them. But again, this turn around wasn’t his first impression.
It wasn’t until 2000 when Texas bought a house in the Top 10 and started losing to OU every year that the public really became aware of Mack Brown. This was about the same time that Bob Stoops broke on the scene. Their contrasts in personality couldn’t have been greater. Bob Stoops was the guys guy coach. Tons of attitude, tons of swagger, no excuses, cut throat, very edgey. Mack Brown was the grandfather figure, tried to stand for something bigger than football, preaches the student-athlete concept, deflected all credit, and assumed all responsibility for failure. Meanwhile he was still winning 10 games every year and winning bowl games.
Over the last 5 years the tides have turned but nobody cares because that first impression is cemented. Mack Brown has now won a national championship. He’s won 7 of his last 8 bowl games. The best teams of this decade that Texas could prove itself against are USC, Ohio State, OU, LSU, and over the last 5 years, Florida. He’s beaten Southern Cal in Southern California, beaten Ohio State 2 of 3, OU 4 of the last 5, LSU in the Cotton Bowl, and has a better than 0% chance of beating Florida in the National Championship.
My point is none of it matters because of the first impression. Lets say Texas runs the table and beats Florida in the Rose Bowl. Mack Brown will have won more games than any coach this decade, will have two national championships, will have beaten every major power of the era, will have won 8 of his last 9 bowl games, and will be undefeated in 4 BCS bowls. Despite all of that Mack Brown still won’t be one of the first 3 names out of people’s mouths when they’re breaking down the best college football coaches.
People have noticed in Mack’s tone this year that he is very philosophical. He realizes his legacy has been cemented. He realizes Will Muschamp has been promised his job I’m sure with the expectation that it would come sooner than later.
But what the hell. Mack Brown is still the best coach in the country in my book because I know the numbers and I know what the unprecedented consistency means. So screw impressions and respect, lets go out with a bang.
-hj
Written by Hujo on October 30th, 2009 with 1 comment.
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With this week being the gameweek of the Texas-Oklahoma game, the best rivalry in college football, I felt it appropriate to roll out my thesis on why hate of all things Longhorn is so often inconsistent.
Texan OU fan
There are essentially two types of Sooners: 1. Sooners born and raised in Oklahoma and 2. Sooners from Dallas/North Texas. Oklahomans largely hate all things Texas, University or otherwise. Texan Sooners generally still are “Texans” in every sense of the word but because Texans and Oklahomans are rivals naturally the flagship universities of each are rivals so they’re expected to develop at least a distaste towards the University of Texas.
The irony is the Texan Sooners don’t abandon their Texas loyalty. Texans are hated for being an overly prideful brand of people. They’re very confident bordering on cocky about what they stand for. They’re perceived as loud and arrogant and it’s a mandate that everything they’re associated with is the biggest and best and they’ll make sure you know about it. They consider themselves the biggest and best and belitte smaller less significant counterparts.
The irony is that these are naturally all the EXACT same reputations and critcisms the University of Texas embodies. Texan Sooners will defend themselves as Texans to their true Oklahoman counterparts and pay a premium dollarwise to go to school there, don’t really like or take pride in the place they live in, and they’ll be damned if on graduation day they’re not on the last helicopter out of Saigon leaving the state.
How you defend yourself for embodying one reputation yet hate a school that embodies that same reputation and all the while adopting a schools reputation that embodies a rival state I don’t know.
Texas Sucks
OU is all about being anti-Texas. Again a subset of this group focuses the hate on all things Texan the other qualifies their hate as only applying to a school. It’s ironic that a portion of the stadium chants Texas Sucks and truly means it and another group chants the same thing while thinking I hope it’s clear this hate only applies to one school.
An analogous situation that I consider as a lifelong Catholic is if I were to attend the nations largest Baptist school, Baylor, and let’s pretend Baylor is archrivals with the nations largest catholic school, Notre Dame. Could I bring myself to chant or wear “Catholics Suck”? No freaking way. I can’t tell you how dirty that would feel.
Cowboy-fan Longhorn haters
Another top criticism of Longhorns is that so many Longhorn fans just jump on the Longhorns because they want to associate themselves with something successful. If you go to the innercities of Texas cities or find your way to the border you’ll find tons of people sporting Longhorn gear on Saturdays just because it’s the cool thing to do.
Many Longhorn-haters are very critical that there are so many “T Shirt” fan Longhorn fans yet those exact same haters are dying hard for the Dallas Cowboys on Sundays.
This concept on Saturdays is apparently so repulseful it results in hating a school yet that concept doesn’t apply on Sundays to an organization that is 10x the violator and in neither circumstance any fault of the organization itself
Austin Loving Longhorn haters
So many Longhorn haters allegedly didn’t even consider moving to Austin, very possibly the coolest city in the country for young adults, at age 18 because they preferred the metropolises that are College Station, Lubbock, and Norman where after graduation they would never again wish to live.
Yet at age 22 magically overnight Austin becomes the coolest place to live/visit for these very same people. I wonder if they do realize if you go to the University of Texas you do get to live in Austin. All the bar districts, pretty sites and scenary, quirkiness and artisticness, parks, tubing, live music, rivers and lakes, outdoor activities, BBQ, Mexican Food, easy living and general celebration of all things young and active that are available to these haters post graduation are available to UT students starting at age 18.
I wonder how many actually made a visit to Austin or were just too intimidated by a huge, urban campus. It’s one thing if you grew up in a town of population 200 but quite another if you had 500+ in your HS graduating class.
I know I was open minded enough to visit Austin, College Station, Lubbock, and Purdue in HS and the decision was easy.
Hating Diverse Groups
I often wonder who Longhorn haters envision they are hating. Do they hate Liberals? People with colored hair and peircings? T shirt fans? Asians? Geeks? City dwellers? Generic white washed surban kids? Texas lovers? Non-Texans? Non-Americans? Grunge cigarette smoking coffee drinking live music lovers? Frat/Sororities?
The University of Texas is probably the most diverse campus in the country. I will suggest that if you can bring youself to hate all of these people you are quite an angry individual!
If you are an Oklahoma born, Texas hating, Cowboy hating, Austin hating, everybody hater, first I have to call you out as being my own personal anti Christ but I have to hand it to you… At least you’re consistent.
Case Closed
***Longhorn haters commence hating and nausea
Written by Hujo on October 12th, 2009 with no comments.
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Last week with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter Texas Tech with a 5 point lead over the University of Houston made the highly controversial decision to go for it on 4th and Goal from the 1 rather than choose to attempt the surefire field goal to go up 8. The decision to go for it was followed by a playcall decision to try a QB sneak which got stuffed. Long story short, Houston go two more full possessions while Texas Tech got one and Houston of course won the game. Mike Leach after the game was second guessed why he made the decision to go for it by anybody and everybody.
I had a debate with a friend where I played devil’s advocate about whether the statistically correct there was to go for it or kick it. If I were a head coach I’m sure I would have a 4th quarter card for these types of situations much like the card coaches keep in their pocket for when to go for 2 (http://www.normhitzges.com/thechart.htm) and the Basic Strategy cards Vegas lets you use at Blackjack tables to know when to Hit, Stand, Double, or Split based on your total and the Dealer’s up card (http://bit.ly/BAs7T).
My college roommate and I used to always relate running the ball on 3rd down and 5 in a tie game to standing on 15 with the dealer showing a 7. It seems like the conservative play in the short run because you keep yourself alive but its the statistically riskier situation in the long run.
Going back to my how to play the lottery like an engineer post (http://www.hujoblogger.com/?p=175) when I introduced the concept of expected value. To recap expected value is the average per trial value that results as the number of trials approaches infinity weighting the different possible outcomes by the percent chance of each scenario.
I figure you can do the same with this football situation. There are a handful number of decisions and outcomes that could have happened in those last 10 minutes all with their own different frequencies and effects on the score. Based on my best guesses for inputs I figure Texas Tech’s +5 point differential before Leach’s monumental decision results in an expected value of +8.25 when going for it and +6.14 when settling for the easy field goal. Likewise the go for it decision results in a win 86% of the time while the field goal results in a win 83%. Feel free to enter your own inputs here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApUJc7oLcYG5dHhhLWczZm1DRGIwOTZKRHo5UVdyQ2c&hl=en).
Based on the crassness of the assumptions and probable inaccuracy of the inputs these small differences are almost certainly not statistically signficant. That being said I’m sure there are people at least at the NFL level out there Moneyball-ing these types of situations.
Written by Hujo on October 4th, 2009 with 1 comment.
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Just read a column (http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2009/08/05/urban-meyers-rich-but-are-taxpayers-footing-too-much-of-the-bi/) about escalating coaches salaries. I wrote a blog post 3 or 4 years ago about college football program revenue and coaching salaries (http://www.hujoblogger.com/?p=45). I made the similar point of profit margins in college football versus normal industries.
My arguments to the Fanhouse post:
1. He argues that the primary reason college football program margins are so high is because colleges don’t pay tax on profits like corporations. Like he mentioned tax is going to be ~30% and only on profit. The real reason their margins are so high is because 85 of their “employees”, read: scholarship athletes, are only being “paid” ~$25,000/yr (Estimated cost of being a student). That is a very important point.
2. In mentioning the escalating coaches salaries he fails to mention how their escalation rate compares to the escalating program revenues and profits they correspond to. In 2004-2005 Texas Football brought in $53.2 million, $38.7 million of which was profit. In 2007-08 they generated $72.95 million, $52.9 million of which was profit. Despite escalating coaches salaries the program’s profit margin remained the same, ~73%.
The Texas football program is able to help support 18 other varsity sports programs, since men’s basketball is the only other to make its money back, and still has $19 million left over after that.
My question is will capping coaches salaries mean more coaches jump to the NFL which results in curbing the escalating profits football programs earn for their schools? If so then wouldn’t that be the worst move in terms of “public value” we could possibly make?
http://bealonghorn.utexas.edu/whyut/basics/finances/index.html
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=2337810
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2009/06/15/texas-is-tops-in-sports-revenue/
————————————————————–
Response from clay.travis@gmail.com:
Great point on number one. I could have included that, but thought it was clear. Of course lots of people won’t notice this.
Best contra argument is that actual athletic department total profits are slim after the nonrevenue sports are included. But the point remains, not taxing football and treating it as a nonprofit helps fuel the arms race.
On its face the nfl should pay much higher salaries than major college football. But they don’t.
Good email though.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
Written by Hujo on August 5th, 2009 with no comments.
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As someone with a math and science background and an engineering degree I always kind of poopooed the concept of “soft skills” and communication. In my job as a consultant I have definitely learned a lot more about soft skills than I have hard technical skills.
Effective communication is one thing I have focused on the most. I think there are three easy keys to get started. The first two are just to speak loudly and confidently. The third change is a change in the content of what you say not just how you speak and that is to be as specific and precise as possible. This is ESPECIALLY true in email where tone is hard and sometimes impossible to detect.
The most concrete goal I can think of to set is to try to go one day, maybe just in writing and responding to emails, but don’t use any pronouns or ambiguous language. Don’t use He, She, Us, It, There, They, That, Thing, This, Those, Stuff, We, Them, Their, Kind of, or Sort of. Notice how much less confusion and how many less clarifying questions and email responses you get. Using ambiguous language and pronouns is more efficient in the immediate but is largely more inefficient in the long run. Just a thought.
-hj
Written by Hujo on April 17th, 2009 with no comments.
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About a year and a half ago I was working on a project in Indiana and some co-workers were talking about starting a pool to buy Powerball tickets. Powerball is a lottery that spans 30 states and has quite a higher payout than just the normal lottery. That being said its still a lottery or a “stupidity tax” or a “math tax” whatever you want to call it. Normally I like to consider math a strong suit of mine and I usually try to avoid voluntarily paying taxes based on my stupidity. But the payout WAS something like $235 million so I decided to play the lottery like an engineer.
I know, “Nerd Alert” *Michael Scott voice*.
So here’s how it went down. To play the lottery like an engineer you need to consider two things: when to play and how to play.
When to play
I think most people are probably familiar with how the lottery works. The cost of one entry and the probability of winning stay constant while the jackpot gradually increases until someone or multiple people win. People who took a high school statistics class probably remember the concept of expected value. Expected value is the average value that will result from an experiment as the number of trials approaches infinity. For instance, if you paid $1 in a coin flipping match and the payout was $2 (your original dollar plus a dollar) then the expected value would be $1. In other words if you played the game an infinite number of times half the times you would walk away with nothing and half the times you would walk away with $2 so the expected value is $1.
A bit more complicated example is if you participated in a raffle where you paid $1 for a ticket, the raffle has 1000 tickets, and the jackpot is $1000. The expected value here again is $1, 99.9% of the time you’ll walk away with nothing and 0.1% of the time you’ll walk away with $1000 so if you play an infinite number of times the total payout divided by the total number of trials will result in a $1 payout per trial average.
So of course my first step in determining whether or not I wanted to participate in this lottery pool was to calculate the expected value for that particular payout. My resolution was that if the expected value on the $1 Powerball ticket was $1 or greater I would give it a shot. The way the Powerball works is your $1 ticket allows you to pick five white balls from 1 to 59 and one additional red ball from 1 to 39.
Calculating the probability of hitting the jackpot is probably easier than you would expect. For the first white ball that is drawn you have a 5/59 chance of getting it right. Assuming you get that one right you have a 4/58 chance of getting the second white ball, 3/57 chance for the third, 2/56 for the fourth, and 1/55 for the fifth. For the red ball you have a 1/39 shot and to figure out the probability of combining all of those in one run you simply multiply (5/59)*(4/58)*(3/57)*(2/56)*(1/55)*(1/39)=1/195,249,054. So as long as the jackpot is greater than $195,249,054 than your expected value will be be greater than $1. In other words if you played the lottery an infinite number of times with these conditions and this payout you would make money. Actually the jackpot that results in an expected value of $1 is slightly less than that because there are multiple payouts, not just the jackpot, but that calculation is much more complicated.
The catch is the advertised jackpot is only really the jackpot if you are the sole winner. This leads me to how to play the lottery like an engineer.
How to play
My next step was to devise a strategy that would reduce the probability that if I won the lottery that I would share the same combination of numbers as any other participant. In short I tried to think of what the most “unlucky” combination of numbers would be. I put unlucky in quotes as a joke because no combination of 5 white balls and 1 red ball is anymore unlucky than another. As long as you completely fill out a lottery ticket there is no way to be “good” or “bad”. But again this is a “stupidity tax” so most people won’t get that. My strategy was to pick consecutive numbers. The majority of people who voluntarily participate in the “stupidity tax” would tell you that the probability of winning with a “4,18,32,44,58,*31*” ticket would be better than a “1,2,3,4,5,*6*” ticket when in fact the probabilities for each ticket are the exact same, 1/195,249,054 as we discovered earlier. But since the “stupidity tax” participant won’t pick consecutive numbers I have a better chance of being the sole winner if in fact I do win.
Now you can take this knowledge forward and play the lottery like an engineer.
-hj
Written by Hujo on March 22nd, 2009 with 1 comment.
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… and Texas has nobody to blame but Utah. Oh and the sixth Big XII tiebreaker rule…
“Last year, though, Texas’ strength of schedule ranked 14th nationally in USA Today’s Sagarin ratings, largely on the merits of the strength of the Big 12.
That might have been bolstered if a three-game series with Utah had not fallen through. Texas and Utah had a ‘letter agreement’ in 2000 on a series that would have played two games in Austin in 2007 and 2009 with an away game in Salt Lake City in 2008.
‘Before we got to the formal contract phase, Utah decided not to do it,” Worley said. “They indicated they’d rather not play.’
Utah finished 13-0 as the only unbeaten Division I-A football team in the country and was No. 2 behind BCS champion Florida in the final Associated Press poll. The Utes might have benefited from a game with Texas, because their strength of schedule was 56th, according to Sagarin. Texas and Utah have not talked about any dates since.”
Austin-American Statesman Link
Written by Hujo on January 17th, 2009 with no comments.
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This whole Big XII tiebreaker rule is quite the mess. We obviously didn’t Make Up Our Minds While All Emotions Are Under Control and so many fell in love with the bright shiny thing on national TV. I absolutely did not understand how OU had a case until yesterday’s Colin Cowherd show. His point was if OU barely beats Texas Tech then it truly is a three-way tie and then how do you decided that? But if OU goes out and kills Tech like they did then it becomes a two-way tie which OU loses. So OU is penalized for playing well in the Tech game. The whole thing is bogus as a result of the idiots that created this tiebreaker rule didn’t keep things objective at every turn and eventually it turned partially (66%) to a vote which isn’t objective at all… it’s figure skating.
So what objective measures should have broken the three-way tie?
There are two cliches coaches always say to players before games and during the season.
1. All that matters is that at the end of the game we have one more point than they do.
2. Conference play is the start of a new season, nothing that has happened so far matters for the positive or the negative in terms of our goals of winning a conference championship.
I believe those two things should be true as well.
This brings about two debates: 1. Should margin of victory matter and if so how much? 2. Should non-conference schedule matter in a conference race?
1. Margin of Victory
Margin of victory should potentially matter and be used as an objective tiebreaker as long as it has a low-cap. High school football the cap is 10 points, I think possibly you could stretch to 14 but no more. Some people are suggesting 21 but that’s too much. Too high of a cap encourages poor sportsmanship like we saw in the OU-OSU and the Texas Tech-Texas A&M games. OU was up 14 with less than a minute left. A single snap to QB Sam Bradford and a knee to the ground and the game is over. But with a 21 point cap system or even the BCS system we have today that’s not enough. Texas Tech is up 36-25 with less than a minute left and running no-huddle they punch it down to the goalline, they challenge the spot, lose the challenge, and then run another play to score. Again one knee to the ground and the game is over. Mack Brown meanwhile politicked off the field but was sportsmanlike perhaps to a fault on the field benching starters in the fourth quarters of games. Stoops and Leach took the high-road off the field but that wasn’t reflected in their coaching decisions on game day. A 66-28 OU win over Texas A&M shouldn’t be valued any more or less than a 49-9 Texas win over Texas A&M. Both teams got their points across and it should be mute.
2. Non-conference scheduling
Much has been made of the fact that there are 5 conferences that have divisions and a conference championship game and four of them use the BCS to eliminate the third team in a 3-way tie and then look at head-to-head. The other (Big XII) uses solely the BCS, although according to the Big XII commissioner that is likely to change after the season although it will be too late at that point. The majority of people are in favor of the way the majority of the conference’s tiebreaker rules work but even that system uses the BCS to eliminate the third team. The problem with using the BCS is that the BCS factors in non-conference games which shouldn’t be an input at all in determining a conference champion.
What if OU schedules Florida AT FLORIDA and loses yet Texas, Texas Tech, and OU are all 7-1 in Big XII play? Should OU be penalized for that? The message here seems to be schedule the best team you know you can beat. Sure OU beat TCU and Cincinnatti at home but should that be a factor in determining anything conference related? Also, are TCU and Cincinnatti really the jugernauts that OU is getting credit for beating? Any chance Texas or Texas Tech don’t beat TCU and Cincinnatti at their place?
Another factor that was overlooked, at it should as all non-conference should, is games against D 1-AA schools. Texas Tech played two and Oklahoma played one. How about OU playing the worst team in college football, Washington, the only winless school in the country?
These schedules are made 4-7 years in advance so determining who is going to be good that one year involves a bit of luck unless you schedule a Florida, USC, or Ohio State and even then there is a chance you can go wrong.
Texas scheduled Arkansas, easily the most distinguished program on any of the teams in the three-way tie’s non-conference schedules. This is a team that beat Texas in Austin their last trip down, a team that knocked off #1 LSU in Baton Rouge a year ago during their national championship run, a team that regularly plays in SEC Championship games which is routinely considered the toughest conference in the country. But Texas gets no credit for scheduling them because this one year they’re transitioning to a new coach they suck so that 52-10 beat down shouldn’t matter? If we are factoring in non-conference scheduling then it should matter. But again that in no way should be a factor.
The non-conference is the most unstructured scheduling in sports. As unstructured as college football is the Big XII’s conference schedule is as good as it gets. You play the 5 teams in your division every year alternating home and away. You play 3 of the 6 teams in the other division alternating home and away and then the next two years you play the other 3 home and away. It’s structured, the symmetry is great, there is no reason to take into account non-conference games.
Objective Tiebreaker Solution
The way it should have worked would be to take the three teams in the three-way tie and look at the points margin in the 3 games they played against each other with a 10 or 14 point cap on each game. There are multiple ways to do this:
1. The third team in this points margin comparison is eliminated and then the top two teams are compared based on their head-to-head game.
2. The top team in total points margin advances, if two or three teams are still tied then you take the top points margin in games against common conference foes, if two or three teams are still tied then you take the top points margin team taking into consideration all conference games, if two or three teams are still tied then you go to a draw.
Frankly, I prefer the margin of victory process of elimination followed by the head-to-head comparison better but either way it doesn’t involve voting, it doesn’t encourage scoring late and blowing people out, and it doesn’t involve non-conference games.
And even so, I still think that margin of victory systems favor offensive-minded team. OU is probably the least complete team of the half dozen teams in the mix with a defense ranked 60th and special teams with problems that are well documented. But their stellar offense bails them out of all of this and teams like USC and Penn State that play great defense and special teams get left out of the discussion.
Saturday Night ABC Games
One last rant about Saturday Night ABC games…
Saturday Night nationally televised 7 PM ABC games are the biggest home field advantage in the sport. Of the teams in the 3-way tie everyone played at least one at home and exactly one on the road. Homefield advantage regardless is an advantage throughout the entirety of the game but I think these nationally televised night games bring such a hyped crowd that many teams can get KO’d in the first hour of real human time. One hour, or about a quarter and a half, is my estimate of hour long that initial tidal wave lasts. If you look at the scores of these games at the midway point of the second quarter you will see what I mean:
Missouri at Texas 0-35
Texas at Texas Tech 0-19
Oklahoma St at Texas Tech 7-21
Texas Tech at Oklahoma 0-28
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St 14-13
If I am a coach on the road in one of these games I am making it my goal to burn all three first half timeouts in the first quarter. If they start a drive at their own 20 by the time they reach my 40 I am burning one to try and break up that momentum and chill that crowd out. Any time I’m in a third down situation and the crowd is really bringing it, unless I can see we have the perfect call on, I am burning a timeout. Adding 10-15 minutes of human time worth of commercials without any game time burning off should make that initial tidal wave subdue faster. Regardless they are going to have an advantage but it’s all about withstanding that initial wave.
Big XII Coach of the Year
And last and I’m serious this time how do you give Big XII coach of the year to Mike Leach and Bob Stoops. Preseason OU, Texas Tech, and Texas were unanimously picked to finish 1, 2, 3 by the media and that 3 finished tri-divisions champs with 1 and 2. This is the least talented Texas team in the 11 years Mack Brown has been the coach. Whereas the Rose Bowl teams sent 30 guys to NFL rosters I would be shocked if this team sent more than 6-8. Mike Leach… maybe. Bob Stoops? Give me a freaking break!
-hj
Written by Hujo on December 2nd, 2008 with no comments.
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Assuming Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas beat Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M respectively we should be able to determine the Big XII South representative based on the outcome of this Saturday’s Texas Tech at Oklahoma game. If Texas Tech wins at Oklahoma they go. Nobody disputes that. But considering Oklahoma is a touchdown favorite going into this weekend it makes sense to delve into what happens if Oklahoma takes care of Texas Tech. It is my belief that logically it makes the most sense to have Texas represent the Big XII South IF Oklahoma beats Texas Tech Saturday.
Home Field
In this scenario each of the three beat one of the other three and lost to one of the other three. Everyone took care of home. The catch is Texas is the only one of the three that didn’t have a game at home. Their win came by 10 points in a neutral site game which should prove to be more impressive than either home win.
Comparing Losses
Considering the circumstances Texas’ loss was most impressive. The atmosphere was the most raucous in the history of the Texas Tech football program. The losing score came on an incredible play with one second to play. And consider that Texas held Texas Tech, one of the strongest offenses in the country, out of the endzone for nearly 40 consecutive minutes.
Strength of Schedule
A lot of projections have Oklahoma passing Texas based on the strength of their non-conference schedule and the timing (late) of their games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The strength of your non-conference schedule when you schedule mid-majors involves a lot of luck. Texas’ non-conference mid majors included bowl teams from a year ago that just happen to suck this year. Consider that Texas played four straight Top 10 teams, something that had never been done, and were one second from going 4-0. Again, getting to play four consecutive Top 10 teams involves luck as well, as does getting to end your season against two ranked teams, but as long as we are going to factor in luck lets take it all in and if you gave me the choice of Oklahoma’s schedule and Texas’ schedule I would chose Oklahoma’s because its the easier route.
Proven in Big Games
Tech has won 10 Bowl Games in their history and half of them have come in the last 6 years. The program has never been hotter. Texas has won 6 of their last 7 bowl games. Their program is also as hot as it has been since the 1960s. Oklahoma has won 1 Bowl Game in the last 5 years, has gone 1-3 against Texas the last four years, and 2-2 against Texas Tech the last 4 years. Oklahoma is easily the most disappointing program win considering big games in recent history. The fact that Oklahoma has performed so poorly in big games may just prove that all of this breakdown was meaningless if they lay an egg against Texas Tech. Don’t you want to put forth your best big game team in a conference championship game?
Is this not obvious? What am I missing?
Side note: Reason 12,387 we need a playoff so instead of having this debate we could take 8 teams and have 7 great games and settle all of this on the field in a structured way.
-hj
Written by Hujo on November 20th, 2008 with 3 comments.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMk5sMHj58I
I’m starting to really understand Herm Edwards. In this sports world of stats overload (fantasy sports, batting averages with a 3-1 count, slugging percentages, and yards after catch) I think we forget that the most important statistic is how often does a player or a team look to the scoreboard to see a number next to their team that is greater than the number aside the opposition.
The score is the only metric that really matters, other statistics only either loosely translate to what determines the outcome of the game or attempt to determine who had a greater individual contribution. But in the end the verdict of who wins doesn’t depend on statistics that may indirectly affect the score nor does it care about the distribution or magnitude of individual contributions.
A couple of years ago Mack Brown in his preseason press conference talked about a 10 year study his staff did in attempting to find what single statistic most closely correlated to wins and the result was points allowed. Its makes sense because the saying goes defense wins championships.
But why then does the NFL rank defenses by yards allowed? Bill Parcells often would talk of the rule of thumb that every 100 yards of offense, defense, or penalties usually equated to a score. But why use that rule of thumb that doesn’t always hold true anyways?
Last year an NFL writer for the Dallas Morning News was making a point about how distinguished the top 5 defenses were (using the NFL yards allowed). I emailed him and asked who cares about those 5 teams? What really mattered was the top 5 points allowed defenses which was a completely different subset of teams. History shows they will win more games so who really cares about the yards allowed?
Another common stastical comparison that I don’t understand is TD passes versus INTs for QBs. That is comparing a statistic that directly affects the outcome of the game to a statistic that indirectly sometimes affects the outcome of the game (the score). If a QB throws 15 TDs and 30 INTs chances are he still produced more points than his team surrendered.
Basketball and Hockey are the only sports that track the scoring differential when individuals are on the court or rink but those are very telling statistics in my opinion.
This brings me to a different point. Quarterbacks are largely mis evaluated in general. Quarterbacks are often evaluated by TD passes, passing yards, completion percentages, interceptions, and passer ratings. The position is unlike any in sports. Everybody naturally looks to a quarterback for leadership and morale. I have been on a team where the QB got hurt and a younger, not very confident guy took over who didn’t have “it.” That substitution didn’t just affect the output at the QB position or the play of the offense. It affected the play of the entire team in all 3 phases of the game.
I’m willing to say that the actual on the field play of a QB is only half of what he can contribute to a team. The moxie and confidence the rest of the team sees in the way he leads even when he plays poorly positively affects the rest of the team.
Peyton Manning was statistically the best quarterback for years but Tom Brady who put up very modest statistics was the one winning the big games and championships.
Texas Tech quarterbacks lead the country in passing every year but how many of them have ever led a team to a lot of wins or a championship or took a snap in the NFL?
I really started to buy into this concept in college watching Vince Young. His sophomore year he really came into his own, put up great statistics, and led a good team.
The next year after the previous class of leaders left and the team became his team into which he could insert his DNA, that same team minus the departed seniors and leaders became a Great team.
That swagger, that confidence, that holding yourself accountable was contagious to every person on the team. The same defense and special teams that was okay the year before became great.
Wins are what matters and quarterbacks should be measured accordingly. Their on the field performance is only 50% of what they contribute. If you give me the option of an average QB who has “it” and a great passer who doesn’t I’m taking the guy who makes every person in the locker room better.
I recently was telling some friends that if I were the Ravens I would go with Troy Smith. Yea he’s too small. Yea maybe he’s not the greatest passer in the world but he is a winner. He has shown he can lead.
Now let’s look at Tim Tebow. Tebow inherited a national championship team and went 9-4 while throwing 29 TDs. Going 9-4 is a bad season at a top ten powerhouse type program. If he did that at Texas it would be the worst season in 8 years. Hell if I were the QB there I’d expect to go 9-4. His 29 TDs is a good year for a passer but not anywhere near record breaking. Where he was very impressive was in rushing TDs. So these writers gave a Heisman trophy to a QB who lead (50% of a QBs contribution) to a bad season but was liberally utilized by his team as their goal line running back?
At the end of the day we have a quarterback, VY, who led an undefeated team, the highest scoring offense of all-time, and the team that posted the greatest margin of victory, who DOESN’T have a Heisman but Tim Tebow does?
Now Titan fans aren’t happy with his on the field performance. Last year his on the field performance was sub par but then again his number 1 WR was a guy named Roydell Williams (Haven’t heard of him? Neither had I). Leadership is the other half of the puzzle for QBs and based on his past and the fact that he wears a C on his jersey I assume that’s how he is viewed now.
He lead that no name Titans team in the toughest conference and the toughest division in football to a 10-6 record and a playoff birth. Matt Leinart and Alex Smith were Heisman trophy winners and #1 draft picks but neither of them even START for the Cardinals or 49ers, both of whom are horrible, and they don’t have near the haters that VY does.
In Sports, in football, and especially in the NFL they say winning is all that matters. Have some people forgot and replaced that with individual statistical performance?
-hj
Written by Hujo on September 11th, 2008 with no comments.
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